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Mura vs Koper Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Matchday 6 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 15:30

Mura

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Koper

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-17.7%0-26.0%0-33.1%0-4+1.7%1 1-07.2%1-111.2%1-28.7%1-34.5%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.2%2-18.1%2-26.3%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.5%3-13.9%3-23.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 30.3% 3.30 +16.5%

Draw 24.5% 28.6% 3.50 -8.6%

Away win 40.2% 50.0% 2.00 -19.6%

Over 2.5 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 37.0% 2.70 -1.2%

BTTS 61.3% 64.5% 1.55 -5.0%

Home O1.5 40.0% 39.2% 2.55 +2.0%

Away O1.5 48.5% 54.1% 1.85 -10.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 60.7%

Bet Hit 91%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.3%

A 40% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–1✓ 7.7%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mura1.4

Koper1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MURA · PPG 1.43

KOPER · PPG 1.45

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Mura (H) 35.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +16.5%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.6%

Koper (A) 40.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mura face Koper in Slovenia - 1. SNL on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mura a 35% chance, the draw 25% and Koper 40%, so Koper are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Mura and 1.6 for Koper (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mura are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.45 for Koper. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Mura vs Koper Prediction— Slovenia - 1. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 1. SNL Predictions