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Shanghai Port vs Wuhan Three T. Prediction— China - Super League

Matchday 8 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Shanghai Port

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Wuhan Three T.

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 77.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a clear edge.

+22.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-11.8%0-21.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.9%1-15.5%1-23.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.4%2-18.2%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.4%3-18.2%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-011.6%4+-112.9%4+-27.1%4+-32.6%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.4% 64.5% 1.55 +16.9%

Draw 13.8% 24.4% 4.10 -43.4%

Away win 10.9% 20.0% 5.00 -45.5%

Over 2.5 77.7% 63.7% 1.57 +22.0%

Over 3.5 58.7% 41.7% 2.40 +40.9%

BTTS 63.7% 63.7% 1.57 +0.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -10.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob63.7%

H 75% / xG 3.0-1.1 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 3–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 3–0 7.4%

#5 4–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shanghai Port3.0

Wuhan Three T.1.1

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.7% · O3.5 PROB 58.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANGHAI PORT · PPG 1.50

WUHAN THREE T. · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.50), Away POOR (0.33) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Shanghai Port (H) 75.4%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV +16.9%

Draw 13.8%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -43.4%

Wuhan Three T. (A) 10.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -45.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shanghai Port face Wuhan Three T. in China - Super League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shanghai Port a 75% chance, the draw 14% and Wuhan Three T. 11%, so Shanghai Port are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Shanghai Port and 1.1 for Wuhan Three T. (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shanghai Port are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.33 for Wuhan Three T.. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +40.9%. This match finished 4-0.

Shanghai Port vs Wuhan Three T. Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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