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Imisli vs Sumqayit Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Imisli

PPG 0.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLD

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Sumqayit

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-115.8%0-28.7%0-33.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-012.0%1-113.3%1-27.3%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.0%2-15.6%2-23.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.4%3-11.6%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.5% 36.4% 2.75 -24.4%

Draw 31.0% 34.7% 2.88 -10.7%

Away win 41.5% 38.5% 2.60 +7.9%

Over 2.5 30.8% 45.5% 2.20 -32.2%

Over 3.5 13.3% 25.0% 4.00 -46.8%

BTTS 38.0% 55.6% 1.80 -31.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 71.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob38.0%

A 42% / xG 0.8-1.1 / U2.5 31% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.8%

#2 0–0 14.3%

#3 1–1 13.3%

#4 1–0 12.0%

#5 0–2✓ 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Imisli0.8

Sumqayit1.1

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 30.8% · O3.5 PROB 13.3%

Form & verdict PPG

IMISLI · PPG 0.62

SUMQAYIT · PPG 1.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

42%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.29) vs Home POOR (0.62)

Win probability 1X2

Imisli (H) 27.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -24.4%

Draw 31.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -10.7%

Sumqayit (A) 41.5%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Imisli face Sumqayit in Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Imisli a 28% chance, the draw 31% and Sumqayit 42%, so Sumqayit are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Imisli and 1.1 for Sumqayit (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 31% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Imisli are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 1.29 for Sumqayit. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 0-2.

Imisli vs Sumqayit Prediction— Azerbaijan - Premyer Liqa

Match Preview & Prediction

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