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União de Leiria vs Portimonense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:00

União de Leiria

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWW ·

UPCOMING

Portimonense

PPG 1.49 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-18.4%0-24.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.2%1-112.4%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.1%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.0%3-14.5%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 54.1% 1.85 -14.7%

Draw 24.9% 30.8% 3.25 -11.5%

Away win 29.0% 27.0% 3.70 +4.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 54.6% 1.83 -27.0%

Away O1.5 33.2% 33.3% 3.00 -0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -48.9%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 11.2%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

União de Leiria1.5

Portimonense1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIÃO DE LEIRIA · PPG 1.54

PORTIMONENSE · PPG 1.49

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

União de Leiria (H) 46.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -14.7%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.5%

Portimonense (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

União de Leiria face Portimonense in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives União de Leiria a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Portimonense 29%, so União de Leiria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for União de Leiria and 1.1 for Portimonense (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, União de Leiria are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.49 for Portimonense. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +14.5%.

União de Leiria vs Portimonense Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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