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Reims vs Nancy Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Matchday 32 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Reims

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Nancy

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWW

// Model verdict

Home 68% chance

Model probability 75.0% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a clear edge.

+14.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-13.6%0-21.0%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.8%1-17.8%1-22.1%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.9%2-18.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.4%3-16.0%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-010.0%4+-15.3%4+-21.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.0% 65.4% 1.53 +14.8%

Draw 17.3% 24.4% 4.10 -29.1%

Away win 7.8% 17.4% 5.75 -55.1%

Over 2.5 49.9% 59.9% 1.67 -16.7%

Over 3.5 27.9% 37.0% 2.70 -24.7%

BTTS 36.2% 58.8% 1.70 -38.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 50 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 13.0%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob36.2%

H 75% / xG 2.1-0.5 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.9%

#2 1–0 14.8%

#3 3–0 11.4%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 1–1✓ 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Reims2.1

Nancy0.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 27.9%

Form & verdict PPG

REIMS · PPG 1.87

NANCY · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

68%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.87), Away AVERAGE (1.00) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Reims (H) 75.0%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV +14.8%

Draw 17.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -29.1%

Nancy (A) 7.8%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -55.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Reims face Nancy in France - Ligue 2 on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Reims a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Nancy 8%, so Reims are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Reims and 0.5 for Nancy (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 36% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Reims are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.00 for Nancy. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Reims vs Nancy Prediction— France - Ligue 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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