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Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:00

Hradec Králové

PPG 2.16 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWLL

UPCOMING

Sparta Praha

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-18.7%0-25.5%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.7%1-112.3%1-27.8%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-18.7%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.2%3-14.1%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.2% 33.3% 3.00 +17.6%

Draw 24.3% 29.4% 3.40 -10.4%

Away win 36.5% 46.5% 2.15 -21.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 33.3% 3.00 -4.9%

BTTS 55.9% 59.9% 1.67 -6.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 36.4% 2.75 +9.7%

Away O1.5 36.8% 47.6% 2.10 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–2 7.8%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 0–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hradec Králové1.4

Sparta Praha1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HRADEC KRÁLOVÉ · PPG 2.16

SPARTA PRAHA · PPG 1.47

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hradec Králové (H) 39.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +17.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.4%

Sparta Praha (A) 36.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hradec Králové face Sparta Praha in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hradec Králové a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Sparta Praha 37%, so Hradec Králové are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Hradec Králové and 1.3 for Sparta Praha (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hradec Králové are averaging 2.16 points per game versus 1.47 for Sparta Praha. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +21.1%.

Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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