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Slovácko vs Pardubice Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Slovácko

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLD

UPCOMING

Pardubice

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-18.7%0-25.2%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.3%1-112.4%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-18.8%2-25.3%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.5%3-14.2%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 44.2% 2.26 +1.0%

Draw 25.4% 29.9% 3.35 -8.9%

Away win 29.8% 34.7% 2.88 -8.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 52.4% 1.91 +2.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 29.9% 3.35 +5.9%

BTTS 55.2% 58.8% 1.70 -6.2%

Home O1.5 39.9% 44.4% 2.25 -10.2%

Away O1.5 35.6% 38.2% 2.62 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.2%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–0 10.3%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slovácko1.4

Pardubice1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SLOVÁCKO · PPG 1.06

PARDUBICE · PPG 0.94

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Slovácko (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV +1.0%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -8.9%

Pardubice (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slovácko face Pardubice in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slovácko a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Pardubice 30%, so Slovácko are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Slovácko and 1.2 for Pardubice (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slovácko are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 0.94 for Pardubice. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.9%.

Slovácko vs Pardubice Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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