Today / Czech-Republic - Czech Liga / FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec
FK Jablonec vs Slovan Liberec Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga
FK Jablonec
PPG 2.05 · HOME
Slovan Liberec
PPG 1.90 · AWAY
Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →
0 1 2 3 4+ 0 0-012.0% 0-112.5% 0-26.4% 0-32.2% 0-4+0.7% 1 1-013.0% 1-113.5% 1-27.0% 1-32.4% 1-4+0.8% 2 2-07.0% 2-17.3% 2-23.8% 2-31.3% 2-4+0.4% 3 3-02.5% 3-12.6% 3-21.4% 3-30.5% 3-4+0.2% 4+ 4+-00.9% 4+-10.9% 4+-20.5% 4+-30.2% 4+-4+0.1%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW
Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV
Market Model Implied Odds EV
Home win 36.0% 36.4% 2.75 -1.0%
Draw 28.0% 34.5% 2.90 -11.3%
Away win 36.0% 41.7% 2.40 -13.6%
Over 2.5 42.7% 50.0% 2.00 -14.6%
Over 3.5 20.9% 28.6% 3.50 -16.1%
BTTS 48.0% 57.1% 1.75 -16.0%
Home O1.5 30.8% 40.0% 2.50 -23.0%
Away O1.5 32.2% 40.0% 2.50 -19.5%
League track record ↗
Based on 45 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 51%
O2.5 51%
BTTS 47%
Score Hit 40%
ROI 17.4%
Bet Hit 69%
Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL
1 – 1 34% CONFIDENCE
xG (home) 1.1 xG (away) 1.0 BTTS prob 48.0%
D 28% / xG 1.1-1.0 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%
Top 5 Poisson scorelines
#1 1–1 13.5%
#2 0–1 12.5%
#3 0–0 12.0%
#4 1–0 13.0%
#5 1–2 7.0%
Form & verdict PPG
⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v... Chance this pick lands 48% HIGH_DRAW_RISK xG gap +0.05, combined xG 2.12 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk
Season statistics shots · possession · passes · corners · cards · xG + Season Statistics average per match · 5 matches · 2026 FK Jablonec ▾ lower is better Slovan Liberec
Attack
6.6 Shots inside box
11.0 4.8 Shots outside box
6.3 24.6% Shooting accuracy
32.7% 42.9% Goals per shot on target
23.5% 0.91 xG for 4·6 of 5
1.77 Defence
2.8 Shots on target faced▾
2.5 0.80 Goals conceded▾
0.50 1.11 xG against▾ 4·6 of 5
0.68 Control
81.1% Pass accuracy
75.2% Discipline
Match Preview & Prediction FK Jablonec face Slovan Liberec in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Jablonec a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Slovan Liberec 36%, so FK Jablonec are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for FK Jablonec and 1.0 for Slovan Liberec (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Jablonec are averaging 2.05 points per game versus 1.90 for Slovan Liberec.
Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:00
