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Slavia Praha vs Zbrojovka Brno Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Slavia Praha

PPG 2.28 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDW

UPCOMING

Zbrojovka Brno

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.3%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.9%1-110.3%1-25.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.2%3-16.4%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-14.8%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 81.3% 1.23 -35.4%

Draw 23.5% 19.2% 5.20 +13.3%

Away win 24.0% 8.7% 11.50 +105.6%

Over 2.5 59.6% 67.6% 1.48 -11.8%

Over 3.5 36.4% 46.5% 2.15 -21.7%

BTTS 55.9% 54.1% 1.85 +3.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 76.9% 1.30 -27.5%

Away O1.5 32.4% 20.0% 5.00 +62.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slavia Praha1.9

Zbrojovka Brno1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SLAVIA PRAHA · PPG 2.28

ZBROJOVKA BRNO · PPG 1.64

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.90 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Slavia Praha (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.23 · IMPLIED 81.3% EV -35.4%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV +13.3%

Zbrojovka Brno (A) 24.0%

ODDS 11.50 · IMPLIED 8.7% EV +105.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slavia Praha face Zbrojovka Brno in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slavia Praha a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Zbrojovka Brno 24%, so Slavia Praha are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Slavia Praha and 1.0 for Zbrojovka Brno (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slavia Praha are averaging 2.28 points per game versus 1.64 for Zbrojovka Brno. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +74.6%.

Slavia Praha vs Zbrojovka Brno Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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