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Artis vs Plzen Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

Artis

PPG 0.94 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

UPCOMING

Plzen

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-15.4%0-25.4%0-33.6%0-4+2.8%1 1-04.4%1-18.7%1-28.7%1-35.8%1-4+4.5%2 2-03.5%2-17.1%2-27.0%2-34.7%2-4+3.7%3 3-01.9%3-13.8%3-23.8%3-32.5%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.2%4+-22.2%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.6% 18.9% 5.30 +72.8%

Draw 21.0% 23.8% 4.20 -7.1%

Away win 46.4% 66.7% 1.50 -30.4%

Over 2.5 68.4% 63.7% 1.57 +7.4%

Over 3.5 45.0% 41.7% 2.40 +8.0%

BTTS 63.5% 61.7% 1.62 +2.9%

Home O1.5 48.1% 30.3% 3.30 +58.7%

Away O1.5 58.3% 66.7% 1.50 -12.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.5%

A 46% / xG 1.6-2.0 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.7%

#2 1–1 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.1%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Artis1.6

Plzen2.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ARTIS · PPG 0.94

PLZEN · PPG 1.50

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Artis (H) 32.6%

ODDS 5.30 · IMPLIED 18.9% EV +72.8%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -7.1%

Plzen (A) 46.4%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -30.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Artis face Plzen in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Artis a 33% chance, the draw 21% and Plzen 46%, so Plzen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Artis and 2.0 for Plzen (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Artis are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 1.50 for Plzen. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +86.5%.

Artis vs Plzen Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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