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Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:00

Mlada Boleslav

PPG 1.72 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

UPCOMING

Baník Ostrava

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.0%0-23.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.5%1-111.6%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.6%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.3%3-15.3%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.2%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 44.4% 2.25 +15.2%

Draw 24.4% 31.3% 3.20 -13.2%

Away win 24.4% 33.3% 3.00 -16.1%

Over 2.5 52.4% 58.8% 1.70 -10.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.2% 2.62 -17.2%

BTTS 52.9% 62.5% 1.60 -15.4%

Home O1.5 48.9% 50.0% 2.00 -2.2%

Away O1.5 31.3% 42.0% 2.38 -25.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mlada Boleslav1.7

Baník Ostrava1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MLADA BOLESLAV · PPG 1.72

BANÍK OSTRAVA · PPG 1.15

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mlada Boleslav (H) 51.2%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +15.2%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.2%

Baník Ostrava (A) 24.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -16.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mlada Boleslav face Baník Ostrava in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mlada Boleslav a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Baník Ostrava 24%, so Mlada Boleslav are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Mlada Boleslav and 1.0 for Baník Ostrava (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.72 points per game versus 1.15 for Baník Ostrava. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.9%.

Mlada Boleslav vs Baník Ostrava Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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