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Cibalia vs Bijelo Brdo Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:45

Cibalia

PPG 2.08 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Bijelo Brdo

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 75.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a clear edge.

+22.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-13.6%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-015.1%1-17.6%1-21.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.2%2-18.2%2-22.1%2-30.4%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.6%3-15.9%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-010.3%4+-15.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.6% 61.7% 1.62 +22.5%

Draw 17.0% 30.8% 3.25 -44.8%

Away win 7.4% 19.0% 5.25 -61.2%

Over 2.5 49.5% 47.6% 2.10 +4.0%

Over 3.5 27.6% — — —

BTTS 35.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob35.1%

H 76% / xG 2.1-0.5 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 35%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0✓ 16.2%

#2 1–0 15.1%

#3 3–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 1–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cibalia2.1

Bijelo Brdo0.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.5% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CIBALIA · PPG 2.08

BIJELO BRDO · PPG 0.71

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.08), Away POOR (0.71) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Cibalia (H) 75.6%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +22.5%

Draw 17.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -44.8%

Bijelo Brdo (A) 7.4%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -61.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cibalia face Bijelo Brdo in Croatia - First NL on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cibalia a 76% chance, the draw 17% and Bijelo Brdo 7%, so Cibalia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Cibalia and 0.5 for Bijelo Brdo (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 35% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cibalia are averaging 2.08 points per game versus 0.71 for Bijelo Brdo. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Cibalia vs Bijelo Brdo Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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