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Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin JT Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:35

Beijing Guoan

PPG 0.50 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Tianjin JT

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home weakness: POOR (0.50) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.8%0-17.1%0-22.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.9%1-111.2%1-23.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-18.7%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.9%3-14.6%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-12.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% — — —

Draw 25.2% — — —

Away win 15.6% — — —

Over 2.5 38.4% — — —

Over 3.5 18.6% — — —

BTTS 38.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob38.2%

H 59% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 38%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.9%

#2 2–0 13.2%

#3 1–1 11.2%

#4 0–0 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Beijing Guoan1.6

Tianjin JT0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.4% · O3.5 PROB 18.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BEIJING GUOAN · PPG 0.50

TIANJIN JT · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.50) vs Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Beijing Guoan (H) 59.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tianjin JT (A) 15.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Beijing Guoan face Tianjin JT in China - Super League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Beijing Guoan a 59% chance, the draw 25% and Tianjin JT 16%, so Beijing Guoan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Beijing Guoan and 0.7 for Tianjin JT (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 38% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Beijing Guoan are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Tianjin JT. This match finished 2-4.

Beijing Guoan vs Tianjin JT Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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