Today / Chile - Liga de Ascenso / Antofagasta vs Recoleta

Antofagasta vs Recoleta Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:30

Antofagasta

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWW

UPCOMING

Recoleta

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 64% chance

Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-14.4%0-22.0%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.4%1-19.3%1-24.2%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.9%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.7%3-17.0%3-23.1%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-16.0%4+-22.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 69.4% 1.44 -17.5%

Draw 21.3% 25.6% 3.90 -10.2%

Away win 21.4% 18.2% 5.50 +10.6%

Over 2.5 59.6% 60.6% 1.65 -1.7%

Over 3.5 36.4% 40.2% 2.49 -9.4%

BTTS 54.0% 57.8% 1.73 -6.6%

Home O1.5 60.2% 66.2% 1.51 -9.1%

Away O1.5 25.9% 26.7% 3.74 -1.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.0%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–0 11.0%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Antofagasta2.1

Recoleta0.9

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ANTOFAGASTA · PPG 2.10

RECOLETA · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.21 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Antofagasta (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -17.5%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -10.2%

Recoleta (A) 21.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Antofagasta face Recoleta in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Antofagasta a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Recoleta 21%, so Antofagasta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Antofagasta and 0.9 for Recoleta (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Antofagasta are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.18 for Recoleta. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +15.3%.

Antofagasta vs Recoleta Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Liga de Ascenso Predictions