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Santiago Wanderers vs Deportes Iquique Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 24 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 22:00

Santiago Wanderers

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWW

UPCOMING

Deportes Iquique

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 60.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-14.6%0-22.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.8%1-19.6%1-24.7%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.0%3-16.9%3-23.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-15.7%4+-22.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 48.8% 2.05 +10.1%

Draw 23.4% 29.9% 3.35 -13.0%

Away win 22.8% 33.3% 3.00 -19.0%

Over 2.5 59.6% 61.3% 1.63 -2.9%

Over 3.5 36.4% 39.2% 2.55 -7.2%

BTTS 54.6% 64.5% 1.55 -15.4%

Home O1.5 60.2% 55.2% 1.81 +9.0%

Away O1.5 28.4% 43.1% 2.32 -20.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 54% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santiago Wanderers2.1

Deportes Iquique1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTIAGO WANDERERS · PPG 1.82

DEPORTES IQUIQUE · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.09 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Santiago Wanderers (H) 53.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +10.1%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -13.0%

Deportes Iquique (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santiago Wanderers face Deportes Iquique in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santiago Wanderers a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Deportes Iquique 23%, so Santiago Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Santiago Wanderers and 1.0 for Deportes Iquique (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santiago Wanderers are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 0.70 for Deportes Iquique. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +9.0%.

Santiago Wanderers vs Deportes Iquique Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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