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Deportes Santa Cruz vs Union Espanola Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:00

Deportes Santa Cruz

PPG 0.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLD

UPCOMING

Union Espanola

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-19.4%0-26.1%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.6%1-112.5%1-28.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.3%2-18.3%2-25.4%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-02.8%3-13.7%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 40.8% 2.45 -11.1%

Draw 27.0% 31.3% 3.20 -8.2%

Away win 36.8% 40.0% 2.50 -8.0%

Over 2.5 50.6% 54.1% 1.85 -6.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.7% 2.97 -8.9%

BTTS 52.9% 59.9% 1.67 -11.7%

Home O1.5 38.8% 43.7% 2.29 -11.2%

Away O1.5 40.2% 43.3% 2.31 -7.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.9%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–0 7.2%

#5 0–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Santa Cruz1.3

Union Espanola1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES SANTA CRUZ · PPG 0.80

UNION ESPANOLA · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.02 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Santa Cruz (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -11.1%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.2%

Union Espanola (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -8.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Santa Cruz face Union Espanola in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Santa Cruz a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Union Espanola 37%, so Union Espanola are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Deportes Santa Cruz and 1.3 for Union Espanola (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Santa Cruz are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.10 for Union Espanola.

Deportes Santa Cruz vs Union Espanola Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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