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Magallanes vs Union San Felipe Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:30

Magallanes

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWL

UPCOMING

Union San Felipe

PPG 0.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-12.5%0-21.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.8%1-16.6%1-22.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.5%2-18.9%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.4%3-18.0%3-23.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-012.2%4+-110.3%4+-24.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.7% 64.5% 1.55 +3.4%

Draw 18.6% 26.7% 3.75 -18.1%

Away win 14.8% 19.0% 5.25 -13.4%

Over 2.5 63.7% 56.5% 1.77 +12.8%

Over 3.5 40.5% 33.9% 2.95 +19.5%

BTTS 52.9% 56.5% 1.77 -6.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 60.6% 1.65 +9.4%

Away O1.5 24.2% 27.4% 3.65 -7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 67% / xG 2.7-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.5%

#2 1–1 6.6%

#3 3–0 9.4%

#4 2–1 8.9%

#5 3–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magallanes2.7

Union San Felipe0.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGALLANES · PPG 1.70

UNION SAN FELIPE · PPG 0.58

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.84 for Home, form 1.70 vs 0.58 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Magallanes (H) 66.7%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV +3.4%

Draw 18.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -18.1%

Union San Felipe (A) 14.8%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Magallanes face Union San Felipe in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magallanes a 67% chance, the draw 19% and Union San Felipe 15%, so Magallanes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Magallanes and 0.8 for Union San Felipe (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magallanes are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.58 for Union San Felipe. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +49.7%.

Magallanes vs Union San Felipe Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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