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D. Puerto Montt vs Curico Unido Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 00:30

D. Puerto Montt

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLL

UPCOMING

Curico Unido

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.2 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.4% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.7%0-18.0%0-23.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.9%1-111.9%1-24.5%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.8%2-18.9%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.9%3-14.4%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-12.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.9% 46.5% 2.15 +7.3%

Draw 25.6% 31.3% 3.20 -10.8%

Away win 24.5% 32.3% 3.10 -14.4%

Over 2.5 50.4% 46.5% 2.15 +8.4%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.3% 3.95 +8.0%

BTTS 49.9% 54.1% 1.85 -7.7%

Home O1.5 39.9% 43.5% 2.30 -8.2%

Away O1.5 19.6% 33.3% 3.00 -24.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.9%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.9%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 2–0 11.8%

#4 0–0 10.7%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Puerto Montt1.5

Curico Unido0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

D. PUERTO MONTT · PPG 1.73

CURICO UNIDO · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

D. Puerto Montt (H) 49.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +7.3%

Draw 25.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -10.8%

Curico Unido (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Puerto Montt face Curico Unido in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Puerto Montt a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Curico Unido 25%, so D. Puerto Montt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for D. Puerto Montt and 0.7 for Curico Unido (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Puerto Montt are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.80 for Curico Unido. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +14.3%.

D. Puerto Montt vs Curico Unido Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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