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San Marcos de Arica vs Deportes Copiapo Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 00:00

San Marcos de Arica

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

UPCOMING

Deportes Copiapo

PPG 0.91 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-17.5%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.5%1-111.8%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.2%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.0%3-14.8%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-12.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 55.6% 1.80 -7.8%

Draw 24.4% 32.3% 3.10 -14.6%

Away win 24.4% 25.0% 4.00 -1.4%

Over 2.5 50.6% 48.8% 2.05 +3.7%

Over 3.5 29.4% 27.9% 3.58 +3.1%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 46.5% 50.0% 2.00 -7.0%

Away O1.5 23.5% 26.9% 3.72 -7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 46%

ROI -32.9%

Bet Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 51% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.5%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 0–0 9.3%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Marcos de Arica1.6

Deportes Copiapo0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARCOS DE ARICA · PPG 1.45

DEPORTES COPIAPO · PPG 0.91

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Marcos de Arica (H) 51.2%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -7.8%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.6%

Deportes Copiapo (A) 24.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Marcos de Arica face Deportes Copiapo in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Marcos de Arica a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Deportes Copiapo 24%, so San Marcos de Arica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for San Marcos de Arica and 0.8 for Deportes Copiapo (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Marcos de Arica are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 0.91 for Deportes Copiapo. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.7%.

San Marcos de Arica vs Deportes Copiapo Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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