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San Luis vs Cobreloa Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 24 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 21:30

San Luis

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLW

UPCOMING

Cobreloa

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-17.8%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.6%1-112.0%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.3%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.2%3-14.8%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.6%4+-21.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 51.3% 1.95 -12.8%

Draw 26.2% 29.8% 3.36 -7.2%

Away win 29.1% 29.9% 3.35 -1.5%

Over 2.5 50.6% 54.1% 1.85 -6.4%

Over 3.5 30.2% 32.5% 3.08 -7.0%

BTTS 52.9% 59.2% 1.69 -10.6%

Home O1.5 43.2% 50.0% 2.00 -13.6%

Away O1.5 33.2% 34.7% 2.88 -4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Luis1.5

Cobreloa1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN LUIS · PPG 2.00

COBRELOA · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Luis (H) 44.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -12.8%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.36 · IMPLIED 29.8% EV -7.2%

Cobreloa (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Luis face Cobreloa in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Luis a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Cobreloa 29%, so San Luis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for San Luis and 1.1 for Cobreloa (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Luis are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.20 for Cobreloa. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.2%.

San Luis vs Cobreloa Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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