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Hamburger SV W vs SC Freiburg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:30

Hamburger SV W

PPG 0.82 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

SC Freiburg W

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-16.4%0-25.9%0-33.6%0-4+2.5%1 1-05.3%1-19.8%1-28.9%1-35.4%1-4+3.8%2 2-04.1%2-17.4%2-26.8%2-34.1%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.1%3-13.8%3-23.4%3-32.1%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.0%4+-21.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.6% 32.3% 3.10 +7.3%

Draw 22.4% 30.8% 3.25 -16.3%

Away win 43.0% 50.0% 2.00 -14.0%

Over 2.5 63.1% 62.5% 1.60 +1.0%

Over 3.5 39.4% 40.0% 2.50 -1.5%

BTTS 63.2% 65.4% 1.53 -3.3%

Home O1.5 40.0% 41.2% 2.43 -2.8%

Away O1.5 51.9% 55.2% 1.81 -6.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 69%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -11.3%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.2%

A 43% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.8%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hamburger SV W1.5

SC Freiburg W1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

HAMBURGER SV W · PPG 0.82

SC FREIBURG W · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hamburger SV W (H) 34.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +7.3%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -16.3%

SC Freiburg W (A) 43.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -14.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hamburger SV W face SC Freiburg W in Germany - Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hamburger SV W a 35% chance, the draw 22% and SC Freiburg W 43%, so SC Freiburg W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hamburger SV W and 1.8 for SC Freiburg W (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hamburger SV W are averaging 0.82 points per game versus 1.08 for SC Freiburg W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +15.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Hamburger SV W vs SC Freiburg W Prediction— Germany - Frauen Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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