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Lørenskog vs Junkeren Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Lørenskog

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

UPCOMING

Junkeren

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.7%0-22.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.7%1-19.6%1-25.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.9%2-19.9%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.1%3-16.8%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-15.6%4+-23.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 62.5% 1.60 -19.8%

Draw 21.1% 23.8% 4.20 -6.8%

Away win 28.7% 25.0% 4.00 +8.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 71.4% 1.40 -10.8%

Over 3.5 40.5% 50.0% 2.00 -19.0%

BTTS 59.5% 66.7% 1.50 -10.8%

Home O1.5 59.9% 69.9% 1.43 -14.3%

Away O1.5 33.2% 40.3% 2.48 -17.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 0.8%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.5%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 1–2 5.3%

#4 2–0 8.9%

#5 1–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lørenskog2.1

Junkeren1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LØRENSKOG · PPG 1.88

JUNKEREN · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

69%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.95 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lørenskog (H) 50.1%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -19.8%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.8%

Junkeren (A) 28.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lørenskog face Junkeren in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lørenskog a 50% chance, the draw 21% and Junkeren 29%, so Lørenskog are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Lørenskog and 1.1 for Junkeren (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lørenskog are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.50 for Junkeren.

Lørenskog vs Junkeren Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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