Today / Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 / Trygg/Lade vs Hønefoss

Trygg/Lade vs Hønefoss Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 13:30

Trygg/Lade

PPG 0.62 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDD

UPCOMING

Hønefoss

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 74% chance

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-14.4%0-26.1%0-35.7%0-4+7.9%1 1-02.1%1-16.0%1-28.3%1-37.8%1-4+10.7%2 2-01.4%2-14.1%2-25.7%2-35.3%2-4+7.3%3 3-00.7%3-11.8%3-22.6%3-32.4%3-4+3.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-21.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 19.4% 23.1% 4.33 -9.6%

Draw 16.0% 20.8% 4.80 -13.9%

Away win 64.6% 67.6% 1.48 -4.4%

Over 2.5 72.4% 75.2% 1.33 -3.7%

Over 3.5 50.8% 55.6% 1.80 -8.6%

BTTS 63.5% 69.4% 1.44 -8.6%

Home O1.5 39.5% 44.6% 2.24 -11.5%

Away O1.5 69.2% 76.3% 1.31 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 0.8%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob63.5%

A 65% / xG 1.4-2.8 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.3%

#2 1–3 7.8%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 0–2 6.1%

#5 0–3 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trygg/Lade1.4

Hønefoss2.8

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.4% · O3.5 PROB 50.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TRYGG/LADE · PPG 0.62

HØNEFOSS · PPG 1.62

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

74%

DANGER

xG gap -1.44 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Trygg/Lade (H) 19.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -9.6%

Draw 16.0%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -13.9%

Hønefoss (A) 64.6%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trygg/Lade face Hønefoss in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trygg/Lade a 19% chance, the draw 16% and Hønefoss 65%, so Hønefoss are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Trygg/Lade and 2.8 for Hønefoss (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trygg/Lade are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 1.62 for Hønefoss. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.5%.

Trygg/Lade vs Hønefoss Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 Predictions