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Grorud vs Rana Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:00

Grorud

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

UPCOMING

Rana

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 67% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.5%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.8%1-110.4%1-25.6%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.9%3-16.3%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-14.6%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 71.4% 1.40 -26.5%

Draw 23.5% 21.7% 4.60 +4.9%

Away win 24.0% 18.2% 5.50 +19.2%

Over 2.5 59.7% 69.4% 1.44 -14.0%

Over 3.5 36.4% 50.0% 2.00 -27.2%

BTTS 58.4% 61.7% 1.62 -5.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 74.6% 1.34 -25.2%

Away O1.5 32.5% 36.8% 2.72 -11.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 0.8%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob58.4%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grorud1.9

Rana1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GRORUD · PPG 1.86

RANA · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

67%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Grorud (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -26.5%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +4.9%

Rana (A) 24.0%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +19.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Grorud face Rana in Norway - 2. Division - Group 2 on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grorud a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Rana 24%, so Grorud are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Grorud and 1.1 for Rana (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grorud are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.25 for Rana. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +16.1%.

Grorud vs Rana Prediction— Norway - 2. Division - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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