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Spennymoor vs Marine Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Spennymoor

PPG 1.41 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Marine

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-17.0%0-24.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.0%1-111.4%1-27.3%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.3%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.9%3-15.0%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.9%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 52.6% 1.90 -13.4%

Draw 24.4% 26.7% 3.75 -8.5%

Away win 30.1% 30.3% 3.30 -0.7%

Over 2.5 55.3% 61.7% 1.62 -10.4%

Over 3.5 33.0% 38.5% 2.60 -14.2%

BTTS 57.8% 64.5% 1.55 -10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob57.8%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.0%

#4 1–2 7.3%

#5 2–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Spennymoor1.6

Marine1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SPENNYMOOR · PPG 1.41

MARINE · PPG 1.23

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.41), Away AVERAGE (1.23)

Win probability 1X2

Spennymoor (H) 45.6%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -13.4%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -8.5%

Marine (A) 30.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Spennymoor face Marine in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Spennymoor a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Marine 30%, so Spennymoor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Spennymoor and 1.3 for Marine (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Spennymoor are averaging 1.41 points per game versus 1.23 for Marine. This match finished 1-1.

Spennymoor vs Marine Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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