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Southport vs Telford Utd Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 46 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 11:30

Southport

PPG 1.36 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Telford Utd

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 65.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-16.4%0-25.9%0-33.7%0-4+2.6%1 1-05.3%1-19.7%1-29.0%1-35.5%1-4+3.9%2 2-04.0%2-17.3%2-26.8%2-34.2%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.0%3-13.7%3-23.4%3-32.1%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-12.0%4+-21.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 36.4% 2.75 -12.6%

Draw 22.5% 26.0% 3.85 -13.4%

Away win 45.7% 47.6% 2.10 -4.0%

Over 2.5 65.2% 67.6% 1.48 -3.5%

Over 3.5 43.2% 45.5% 2.20 -5.0%

BTTS 65.6% 70.4% 1.42 -6.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob65.6%

A 46% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 0–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Southport1.5

Telford Utd1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTHPORT · PPG 1.36

TELFORD UTD · PPG 1.18

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.36), Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Southport (H) 31.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -12.6%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -13.4%

Telford Utd (A) 45.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Southport face Telford Utd in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Southport a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Telford Utd 46%, so Telford Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Southport and 1.8 for Telford Utd (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Southport are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.18 for Telford Utd. This match finished 2-0.

Southport vs Telford Utd Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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