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Marquense vs Xelajú Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 03:00

Marquense

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWW

UPCOMING

Xelajú

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 54% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-17.2%0-23.6%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.7%1-111.7%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.6%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.2%3-15.2%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 44.4% 2.25 +14.1%

Draw 24.2% 34.5% 2.90 -17.9%

Away win 25.1% 34.5% 2.90 -16.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 46.5% 2.15 +15.7%

Over 3.5 31.7% 25.8% 3.88 +23.0%

BTTS 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Home O1.5 48.1% 42.6% 2.35 +13.0%

Away O1.5 30.6% 32.3% 3.10 -5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 46.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marquense1.6

Xelajú1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MARQUENSE · PPG 1.71

XELAJÚ · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

54%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Marquense (H) 50.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +14.1%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -17.9%

Xelajú (A) 25.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marquense face Xelajú in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marquense a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Xelajú 25%, so Marquense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Marquense and 1.0 for Xelajú (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marquense are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 0.80 for Xelajú. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.0%.

Marquense vs Xelajú Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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