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Mixco vs Comunicaciones Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 21:00

Mixco

PPG 2.41 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

UPCOMING

Comunicaciones

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

Home 49% chance

Model probability 53.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.0%0-16.1%0-22.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.1%1-110.7%1-24.1%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.5%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.3%3-15.6%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-13.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 54.1% 1.85 -1.2%

Draw 23.8% 33.3% 3.00 -17.2%

Away win 22.8% 25.0% 4.00 -5.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 46.5% 2.15 +15.7%

Over 3.5 31.8% 27.9% 3.58 +13.8%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 49.9% 49.0% 2.04 +1.8%

Away O1.5 20.6% 27.3% 3.66 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 46.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 53% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–0 14.1%

#3 2–0 12.5%

#4 0–0 8.0%

#5 2–1 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mixco1.8

Comunicaciones0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.8%

Form & verdict PPG

MIXCO · PPG 2.41

COMUNICACIONES · PPG 0.69

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

49%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mixco (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -1.2%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.2%

Comunicaciones (A) 22.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mixco face Comunicaciones in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mixco a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Comunicaciones 23%, so Mixco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Mixco and 0.8 for Comunicaciones (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mixco are averaging 2.41 points per game versus 0.69 for Comunicaciones. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.7%.

Mixco vs Comunicaciones Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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