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Antigua GFC vs Aurora Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 01:00

Antigua GFC

PPG 2.41 · HOME

LAST 5

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2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Aurora

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

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// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 68% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 68.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-13.1%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.2%1-17.7%1-23.2%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.3%2-19.4%2-23.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.2%3-17.7%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.1%4+-18.4%4+-23.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.9% 75.2% 1.33 -16.3%

Draw 18.2% 23.8% 4.20 -14.1%

Away win 18.9% 11.8% 8.50 +36.4%

Over 2.5 63.7% 55.6% 1.80 +14.7%

Over 3.5 40.4% 34.5% 2.90 +17.2%

BTTS 54.6% 48.8% 2.05 +11.9%

Home O1.5 66.3% 68.0% 1.47 -2.5%

Away O1.5 23.8% 18.2% 5.50 +18.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 46.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 63% / xG 2.4-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 2–1✓ 9.4%

#4 3–0 9.2%

#5 1–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Antigua GFC2.4

Aurora0.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ANTIGUA GFC · PPG 2.41

AURORA · PPG 0.69

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

68%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.61 for Home, form 2.41 vs 0.69 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Antigua GFC (H) 62.9%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -16.3%

Draw 18.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -14.1%

Aurora (A) 18.9%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +36.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Antigua GFC face Aurora in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Antigua GFC a 63% chance, the draw 18% and Aurora 19%, so Antigua GFC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Antigua GFC and 0.8 for Aurora (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Antigua GFC are averaging 2.41 points per game versus 0.69 for Aurora. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Antigua GFC vs Aurora Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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