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Cobán Imperial vs Guastatoya Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:00

Cobán Imperial

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

UPCOMING

Guastatoya

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-16.7%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.6%1-111.4%1-25.6%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.7%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.6%3-15.5%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.4%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 54.1% 1.85 -7.9%

Draw 23.7% 31.3% 3.20 -14.5%

Away win 26.5% 25.6% 3.90 +2.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 48.1% 2.08 +11.9%

Over 3.5 32.5% 27.9% 3.58 +16.4%

BTTS 54.7% 52.4% 1.91 +4.5%

Home O1.5 49.9% 51.3% 1.95 -2.7%

Away O1.5 29.2% 23.8% 4.20 +13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 46.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 1–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cobán Imperial1.7

Guastatoya1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

COBÁN IMPERIAL · PPG 1.69

GUASTATOYA · PPG 1.02

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

53%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cobán Imperial (H) 49.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -7.9%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -14.5%

Guastatoya (A) 26.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cobán Imperial face Guastatoya in Guatemala - Liga Nacional on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cobán Imperial a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Guastatoya 27%, so Cobán Imperial are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Cobán Imperial and 1.0 for Guastatoya (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cobán Imperial are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 1.02 for Guastatoya. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.4%.

Cobán Imperial vs Guastatoya Prediction— Guatemala - Liga Nacional

Match Preview & Prediction

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