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Atletico San Luis vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:00

Atletico San Luis

PPG 0.91 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLDW

UPCOMING

Guadalajara Chivas

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-19.3%0-25.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.1%1-112.7%1-27.3%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.5%2-18.7%2-25.0%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.4%3-13.9%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 23.3% 4.30 +75.0%

Draw 26.6% 26.3% 3.80 +0.7%

Away win 32.7% 57.5% 1.74 -43.1%

Over 2.5 50.6% 59.9% 1.67 -15.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 37.0% 2.70 -13.5%

BTTS 53.0% 61.7% 1.62 -14.1%

Home O1.5 39.5% 33.9% 2.95 +16.5%

Away O1.5 33.2% 58.8% 1.70 -43.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 11.1%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 0–0 8.2%

#5 0–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico San Luis1.4

Guadalajara Chivas1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO SAN LUIS · PPG 0.91

GUADALAJARA CHIVAS · PPG 1.56

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atletico San Luis (H) 40.7%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +75.0%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +0.7%

Guadalajara Chivas (A) 32.7%

ODDS 1.74 · IMPLIED 57.5% EV -43.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico San Luis face Guadalajara Chivas in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico San Luis a 41% chance, the draw 27% and Guadalajara Chivas 33%, so Atletico San Luis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Atletico San Luis and 1.1 for Guadalajara Chivas (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico San Luis are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 1.56 for Guadalajara Chivas. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +60.7%.

Atletico San Luis vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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