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Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:30

Charlotte

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

UPCOMING

Houston Dynamo

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.9%0-23.1%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-010.3%1-110.8%1-25.6%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.8%3-16.0%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-14.2%4+-22.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.2% 45.0% 2.22 +18.1%

Draw 24.1% 27.8% 3.60 -7.9%

Away win 22.8% 34.2% 2.92 -20.1%

Over 2.5 54.6% 60.6% 1.65 -9.9%

Over 3.5 34.5% 38.2% 2.62 -9.6%

BTTS 55.4% 65.4% 1.53 -15.2%

Home O1.5 54.0% 51.8% 1.93 +4.2%

Away O1.5 32.5% 44.4% 2.25 -26.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 53% / xG 1.8-1.0 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 10.3%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charlotte1.8

Houston Dynamo1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.6% · O3.5 PROB 34.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLOTTE · PPG 2.00

HOUSTON DYNAMO · PPG 1.45

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Charlotte (H) 53.2%

ODDS 2.22 · IMPLIED 45.0% EV +18.1%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.9%

Houston Dynamo (A) 22.8%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charlotte face Houston Dynamo in USA - MLS on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charlotte a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Houston Dynamo 23%, so Charlotte are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Charlotte and 1.0 for Houston Dynamo (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charlotte are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.45 for Houston Dynamo. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +20.6%.

Charlotte vs Houston Dynamo Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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