Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / North Texas vs Real Monarchs

North Texas vs Real Monarchs Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 00:45

North Texas

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDDD

UPCOMING

Real Monarchs

PPG 0.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 56.8% — a clear edge.

+15.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.1%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.6%1-19.0%1-24.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.4%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.8%3-17.2%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-16.6%4+-23.5%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.8% 47.6% 2.10 +19.3%

Draw 21.5% 28.6% 3.50 -14.8%

Away win 21.7% 36.4% 2.75 -24.2%

Over 2.5 61.0% 63.7% 1.57 -4.2%

Over 3.5 38.3% 44.4% 2.25 -13.8%

BTTS 55.9% 69.4% 1.44 -19.5%

Home O1.5 65.8% 56.8% 1.76 +15.8%

Away O1.5 32.5% 47.4% 2.11 -31.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 57% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.4%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 3–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

North Texas2.2

Real Monarchs1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NORTH TEXAS · PPG 1.55

REAL MONARCHS · PPG 0.58

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

North Texas (H) 56.8%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +19.3%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.8%

Real Monarchs (A) 21.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

North Texas face Real Monarchs in USA - MLS Next Pro on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives North Texas a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Real Monarchs 22%, so North Texas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for North Texas and 1.1 for Real Monarchs (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, North Texas are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.58 for Real Monarchs. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +22.7%.

North Texas vs Real Monarchs Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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