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Crown Legacy vs Chicago Fire II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 21:30

Crown Legacy

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWL

UPCOMING

Chicago Fire II

PPG 0.77 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-12.4%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.3%1-16.6%1-24.1%1-31.7%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.1%2-18.8%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.3%3-17.9%3-24.9%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-110.1%4+-26.3%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.0% 58.8% 1.70 +0.3%

Draw 19.2% 25.6% 3.90 -15.1%

Away win 21.8% 28.6% 3.50 -14.2%

Over 2.5 68.4% 73.5% 1.36 -7.0%

Over 3.5 49.4% 54.1% 1.85 -8.6%

BTTS 63.5% 73.5% 1.36 -13.6%

Home O1.5 66.3% 71.9% 1.39 -7.8%

Away O1.5 36.8% 48.1% 2.08 -23.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.5%

H 59% / xG 2.7-1.2 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.6%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 3–1 7.9%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 1–2 4.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Crown Legacy2.7

Chicago Fire II1.2

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CROWN LEGACY · PPG 2.17

CHICAGO FIRE II · PPG 0.77

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.44 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Crown Legacy (H) 59.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV +0.3%

Draw 19.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -15.1%

Chicago Fire II (A) 21.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -14.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Crown Legacy face Chicago Fire II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Crown Legacy a 59% chance, the draw 19% and Chicago Fire II 22%, so Crown Legacy are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Crown Legacy and 1.2 for Chicago Fire II (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Crown Legacy are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 0.77 for Chicago Fire II. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +14.7%.

Crown Legacy vs Chicago Fire II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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