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Inter Miami vs Atlanta United FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:30

Inter Miami

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLW

UPCOMING

Atlanta United FC

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.8%0-21.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.8%1-15.4%1-23.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.2%2-18.1%2-24.6%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.3%3-18.2%3-24.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-011.6%4+-113.0%4+-27.4%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.4% 73.0% 1.37 -7.7%

Draw 16.2% 17.9% 5.60 -5.6%

Away win 16.4% 16.0% 6.25 +1.5%

Over 2.5 70.7% 80.0% 1.25 -11.6%

Over 3.5 50.2% 60.6% 1.65 -17.2%

BTTS 63.1% 71.4% 1.40 -11.7%

Home O1.5 77.9% 82.0% 1.22 -5.0%

Away O1.5 33.2% 39.2% 2.55 -15.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob63.1%

H 67% / xG 3.0-1.1 / O2.5 71% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 3–0 7.3%

#4 1–1 5.4%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter Miami3.0

Atlanta United FC1.1

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.7% · O3.5 PROB 50.2%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER MIAMI · PPG 1.60

ATLANTA UNITED FC · PPG 0.73

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.89 for Home, form 1.60 vs 0.73 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Inter Miami (H) 67.4%

ODDS 1.37 · IMPLIED 73.0% EV -7.7%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 5.60 · IMPLIED 17.9% EV -5.6%

Atlanta United FC (A) 16.4%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter Miami face Atlanta United FC in USA - MLS on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter Miami a 67% chance, the draw 16% and Atlanta United FC 16%, so Inter Miami are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Inter Miami and 1.1 for Atlanta United FC (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter Miami are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.73 for Atlanta United FC. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +2.2%.

Inter Miami vs Atlanta United FC Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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