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Columbus Crew vs Colorado Rapids Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:30

Columbus Crew

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

UPCOMING

Colorado Rapids

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-18.4%0-24.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.1%1-112.4%1-26.9%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.1%2-19.1%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.0%3-14.5%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.3%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.0% 50.8% 1.97 -11.3%

Draw 25.1% 27.8% 3.60 -5.8%

Away win 29.9% 28.6% 3.50 +2.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 52.6% 1.90 -24.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 35.7% 2.80 -7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 11.1%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 2–0 8.1%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Columbus Crew1.5

Colorado Rapids1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

COLUMBUS CREW · PPG 1.27

COLORADO RAPIDS · PPG 0.64

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Columbus Crew (H) 45.0%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -11.3%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.8%

Colorado Rapids (A) 29.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Columbus Crew face Colorado Rapids in USA - MLS on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Columbus Crew a 45% chance, the draw 25% and Colorado Rapids 30%, so Columbus Crew are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Columbus Crew and 1.1 for Colorado Rapids (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Columbus Crew are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.64 for Colorado Rapids. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.5%.

Columbus Crew vs Colorado Rapids Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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