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Orlando City SC vs San Diego Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:30

Orlando City SC

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWD

UPCOMING

San Diego

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-14.4%0-23.8%0-32.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-05.1%1-18.6%1-27.4%1-34.2%1-4+2.6%2 2-04.9%2-18.4%2-27.1%2-34.1%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.2%3-15.4%3-24.6%3-32.6%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-14.1%4+-23.5%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 47.2% 2.12 -7.4%

Draw 21.4% 24.4% 4.10 -7.4%

Away win 34.9% 35.7% 2.80 -2.3%

Over 2.5 68.4% 74.1% 1.35 -7.7%

Over 3.5 45.0% 52.6% 1.90 -14.5%

BTTS 63.5% 75.2% 1.33 -15.5%

Home O1.5 55.8% 62.5% 1.60 -10.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 54.6% 1.83 -12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Orlando City SC1.9

San Diego1.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ORLANDO CITY SC · PPG 1.70

SAN DIEGO · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Orlando City SC (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -7.4%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -7.4%

San Diego (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Orlando City SC face San Diego in USA - MLS on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Orlando City SC a 44% chance, the draw 21% and San Diego 35%, so Orlando City SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Orlando City SC and 1.7 for San Diego (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Orlando City SC are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.90 for San Diego.

Orlando City SC vs San Diego Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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