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Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:30

Toronto FC

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

UPCOMING

Chicago Fire

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-16.2%0-24.9%0-32.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.5%1-110.3%1-28.2%1-34.3%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.5%2-26.7%2-33.5%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.0%3-14.7%3-23.7%3-32.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.8%4+-22.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% 36.5% 2.74 +10.7%

Draw 23.8% 26.7% 3.75 -6.5%

Away win 35.9% 43.9% 2.28 -18.1%

Over 2.5 63.6% 64.5% 1.55 -1.4%

Over 3.5 40.2% 42.6% 2.35 -5.5%

BTTS 63.0% 69.0% 1.45 -8.6%

Home O1.5 48.3% 48.8% 2.05 -1.0%

Away O1.5 47.9% 54.1% 1.85 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.0%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Toronto FC1.6

Chicago Fire1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TORONTO FC · PPG 1.33

CHICAGO FIRE · PPG 1.30

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Toronto FC (H) 40.4%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV +10.7%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.5%

Chicago Fire (A) 35.9%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Toronto FC face Chicago Fire in USA - MLS on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Toronto FC a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Chicago Fire 36%, so Toronto FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Toronto FC and 1.6 for Chicago Fire (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Toronto FC are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.30 for Chicago Fire. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +3.3%.

Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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