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Houston Dynamo FC II vs Austin II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 23:00

Houston Dynamo FC II

PPG 2.17 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDDL

UPCOMING

Austin II

PPG 2.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-19.9%0-25.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.5%1-113.0%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-18.5%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.6%3-13.7%3-21.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% 43.5% 2.30 -3.9%

Draw 28.1% 32.3% 3.10 -7.7%

Away win 30.1% 38.2% 2.62 -21.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 58.8% 1.70 -14.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 36.5% 2.74 -12.8%

BTTS 52.7% 62.5% 1.60 -15.7%

Home O1.5 38.4% 47.6% 2.10 -19.4%

Away O1.5 32.4% 43.7% 2.29 -25.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 42% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 0–0 9.5%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 0–1 9.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Houston Dynamo FC II1.3

Austin II1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

HOUSTON DYNAMO FC II · PPG 2.17

AUSTIN II · PPG 2.08

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.27, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Houston Dynamo FC II (H) 41.8%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -3.9%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -7.7%

Austin II (A) 30.1%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Houston Dynamo FC II face Austin II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Houston Dynamo FC II a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Austin II 30%, so Houston Dynamo FC II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Houston Dynamo FC II and 1.0 for Austin II (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Houston Dynamo FC II are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 2.08 for Austin II.

Houston Dynamo FC II vs Austin II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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