Today / USA - MLS Next Pro / Carolina Core vs New England II

Carolina Core vs New England II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Group Stage ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 22:30

Carolina Core

PPG 1.46 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWLL

UPCOMING

New England II

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.8%0-25.0%0-32.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.3%1-110.9%1-28.1%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.9%2-18.7%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.1%3-14.6%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.7%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.8% 34.7% 2.88 +23.3%

Draw 22.9% 30.3% 3.30 -14.7%

Away win 34.3% 47.6% 2.10 -28.0%

Over 2.5 63.7% 66.7% 1.50 -4.5%

Over 3.5 40.3% 44.4% 2.25 -9.3%

BTTS 62.9% 69.4% 1.44 -9.4%

Home O1.5 47.8% 46.9% 2.13 +1.8%

Away O1.5 42.2% 56.5% 1.77 -25.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 79 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 24%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.9%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 2–0 5.9%

#5 1–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Carolina Core1.6

New England II1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CAROLINA CORE · PPG 1.46

NEW ENGLAND II · PPG 1.64

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.12 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Carolina Core (H) 42.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +23.3%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -14.7%

New England II (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -28.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Carolina Core face New England II in USA - MLS Next Pro on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Carolina Core a 43% chance, the draw 23% and New England II 34%, so Carolina Core are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Carolina Core and 1.5 for New England II (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Carolina Core are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.64 for New England II. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +15.0%.

Carolina Core vs New England II Prediction— USA - MLS Next Pro

Match Preview & Prediction

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