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Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:30

Philadelphia Union

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDW

UPCOMING

CF Montreal

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.5%0-22.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.1%1-18.2%1-24.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.3%2-19.6%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.5%3-17.5%3-24.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.5%4+-17.5%4+-24.4%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.2% 67.1% 1.49 -13.3%

Draw 20.0% 21.5% 4.65 -4.2%

Away win 21.8% 18.5% 5.40 +10.6%

Over 2.5 67.3% 67.6% 1.48 -0.4%

Over 3.5 45.0% 45.5% 2.20 -1.0%

BTTS 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Home O1.5 66.3% 70.4% 1.42 -5.9%

Away O1.5 33.2% 33.3% 3.00 -0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 58% / xG 2.3-1.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 3–1 7.5%

#5 1–2 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Philadelphia Union2.3

CF Montreal1.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PHILADELPHIA UNION · PPG 1.30

CF MONTREAL · PPG 0.64

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.17 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Philadelphia Union (H) 58.2%

ODDS 1.49 · IMPLIED 67.1% EV -13.3%

Draw 20.0%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV -4.2%

CF Montreal (A) 21.8%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +10.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Philadelphia Union face CF Montreal in USA - MLS on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Philadelphia Union a 58% chance, the draw 20% and CF Montreal 22%, so Philadelphia Union are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Philadelphia Union and 1.2 for CF Montreal (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Philadelphia Union are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 0.64 for CF Montreal. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +6.6%.

Philadelphia Union vs CF Montreal Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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