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FC Cincinnati vs DC United Prediction— USA - MLS

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:30

FC Cincinnati

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDL

UPCOMING

DC United

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.2%0-13.0%0-22.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.2%1-17.4%1-25.2%1-32.5%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.3%2-18.9%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.1%3-17.2%3-25.1%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-17.8%4+-25.5%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 64.1% 1.56 -15.9%

Draw 21.7% 21.7% 4.60 -0.1%

Away win 24.4% 21.3% 4.70 +8.8%

Over 2.5 68.4% 72.5% 1.38 -5.6%

Over 3.5 45.0% 51.3% 1.95 -12.3%

BTTS 63.5% 69.4% 1.44 -8.6%

Home O1.5 66.3% 72.5% 1.38 -8.5%

Away O1.5 42.2% 40.0% 2.50 +5.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 109 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -18.9%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.5%

H 54% / xG 2.4-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.4%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 3–1 7.2%

#4 2–2 6.3%

#5 1–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Cincinnati2.4

DC United1.4

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FC CINCINNATI · PPG 2.00

DC UNITED · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.01 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Cincinnati (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.56 · IMPLIED 64.1% EV -15.9%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -0.1%

DC United (A) 24.4%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV +8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Cincinnati face DC United in USA - MLS on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Cincinnati a 54% chance, the draw 22% and DC United 24%, so FC Cincinnati are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for FC Cincinnati and 1.4 for DC United (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Cincinnati are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.09 for DC United. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +15.6%.

FC Cincinnati vs DC United Prediction— USA - MLS

Match Preview & Prediction

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