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Club Queretaro vs Monterrey Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Apertura · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 23:00

Club Queretaro

PPG 1.32 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDLW

UPCOMING

Monterrey

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.0%0-23.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.4%1-110.7%1-26.8%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.5%2-19.5%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.4%3-15.7%3-23.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.8%4+-22.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 30.3% 3.30 +53.8%

Draw 24.1% 27.0% 3.70 -6.5%

Away win 29.4% 49.5% 2.02 -24.4%

Over 2.5 60.5% 61.7% 1.62 -2.0%

Over 3.5 37.4% 39.2% 2.55 -4.6%

BTTS 61.5% 65.4% 1.53 -5.9%

Home O1.5 49.9% 41.7% 2.40 +19.8%

Away O1.5 37.4% 56.5% 1.77 -33.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 45%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -19.2%

Bet Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Queretaro1.8

Monterrey1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.5% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB QUERETARO · PPG 1.32

MONTERREY · PPG 1.15

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Club Queretaro (H) 46.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +53.8%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.5%

Monterrey (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -24.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Queretaro face Monterrey in Mexico - Liga MX on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Queretaro a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Monterrey 29%, so Club Queretaro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Club Queretaro and 1.3 for Monterrey (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Queretaro are averaging 1.32 points per game versus 1.15 for Monterrey. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +64.0%.

Club Queretaro vs Monterrey Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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