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Juárez W vs Cruz Azul W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 03:10

Juárez W

PPG 2.04 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Cruz Azul W

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.

+16.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.9%0-22.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-06.8%1-18.6%1-25.5%1-32.3%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.5%2-19.5%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.5%3-17.0%3-24.5%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-16.5%4+-24.1%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 51.8% 1.93 +6.2%

Draw 21.8% 26.7% 3.75 -10.9%

Away win 23.3% 28.6% 3.50 -11.1%

Over 2.5 66.0% 59.9% 1.67 +10.2%

Over 3.5 45.0% 37.0% 2.70 +21.5%

BTTS 63.1% 63.7% 1.57 -0.9%

Home O1.5 65.8% 56.5% 1.77 +16.5%

Away O1.5 36.6% 38.5% 2.60 -4.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 16%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.1%

H 55% / xG 2.2-1.3 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.5%

#4 3–1 7.0%

#5 1–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juárez W2.2

Cruz Azul W1.3

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

JUÁREZ W · PPG 2.04

CRUZ AZUL W · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.93 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Juárez W (H) 55.0%

ODDS 1.93 · IMPLIED 51.8% EV +6.2%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -10.9%

Cruz Azul W (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juárez W face Cruz Azul W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juárez W a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Cruz Azul W 23%, so Juárez W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Juárez W and 1.3 for Cruz Azul W (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juárez W are averaging 2.04 points per game versus 1.22 for Cruz Azul W. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +31.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Juárez W vs Cruz Azul W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

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