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Tigres UANL W vs Pachuca W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 01:06

Tigres UANL W

PPG 2.23 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Pachuca W

PPG 1.49 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.9%0-22.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.6%1-18.8%1-25.1%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.4%2-19.7%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.3%3-17.2%3-24.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-16.7%4+-23.9%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.8% 58.5% 1.71 -8.0%

Draw 22.4% 25.0% 4.00 -6.2%

Away win 23.8% 23.8% 4.20 -0.0%

Over 2.5 62.9% 64.5% 1.55 -2.5%

Over 3.5 39.3% 42.6% 2.35 -7.6%

BTTS 60.7% 65.4% 1.53 -7.1%

Home O1.5 65.8% 63.7% 1.57 +3.3%

Away O1.5 33.0% 37.0% 2.70 -10.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 16%

ROI -9.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.7%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0✓ 8.4%

#4 1–2 5.1%

#5 3–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tigres UANL W2.2

Pachuca W1.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TIGRES UANL W · PPG 2.23

PACHUCA W · PPG 1.49

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.07 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tigres UANL W (H) 53.8%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -8.0%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.2%

Pachuca W (A) 23.8%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tigres UANL W face Pachuca W in Mexico - Liga MX Femenil on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tigres UANL W a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Pachuca W 24%, so Tigres UANL W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Tigres UANL W and 1.2 for Pachuca W (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tigres UANL W are averaging 2.23 points per game versus 1.49 for Pachuca W. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +7.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Tigres UANL W vs Pachuca W Prediction— Mexico - Liga MX Femenil

Match Preview & Prediction

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