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Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Monday, August 31, 2026, 20:00

Atletico Grau

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

UPCOMING

FBC Melgar

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.6%0-112.6%0-25.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.4%1 1-015.5%1-113.4%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.4%2 2-08.2%2-17.1%2-23.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.9%3-12.5%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.3% 37.7% 2.65 +9.4%

Draw 29.6% 32.8% 3.05 -5.8%

Away win 29.1% 36.2% 2.76 -11.8%

Over 2.5 42.7% 44.4% 2.25 -3.9%

Over 3.5 20.9% 23.8% 4.20 -7.3%

BTTS 48.0% 54.1% 1.85 -11.2%

Home O1.5 30.8% 36.4% 2.75 -15.3%

Away O1.5 24.8% 35.7% 2.80 -18.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 110 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 9.2%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob48.0%

H 41% / xG 1.1-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.5%

#2 0–0 14.6%

#3 1–1 13.4%

#4 0–1 12.6%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Grau1.1

FBC Melgar0.9

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO GRAU · PPG 1.55

FBC MELGAR · PPG 1.45

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.19, combined xG 1.92 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Grau (H) 41.3%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV +9.4%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -5.8%

FBC Melgar (A) 29.1%

ODDS 2.76 · IMPLIED 36.2% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Grau face FBC Melgar in Peru - Primera División on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Grau a 41% chance, the draw 30% and FBC Melgar 29%, so Atletico Grau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Atletico Grau and 0.9 for FBC Melgar (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Grau are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 1.45 for FBC Melgar.

Atletico Grau vs FBC Melgar Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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