Today / Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura / Deportivo Maldonado vs Wanderers

Deportivo Maldonado vs Wanderers Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 21:00

Deportivo Maldonado

PPG 2.15 · HOME

UPCOMING

Wanderers

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+25.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-15.0%0-22.4%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.4%1-19.9%1-24.8%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.4%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.9%3-16.6%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-15.3%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 50.5% 1.98 +6.9%

Draw 23.5% 30.3% 3.30 -13.5%

Away win 22.6% 28.2% 3.55 -11.9%

Over 2.5 59.6% 47.6% 2.10 +25.2%

Over 3.5 36.2% 27.0% 3.70 +33.9%

BTTS 54.6% 54.6% 1.83 -0.1%

Home O1.5 55.8% 46.5% 2.15 +20.0%

Away O1.5 26.1% 30.3% 3.30 -8.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–0 10.4%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Maldonado2.0

Wanderers1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MALDONADO · PPG 2.15

WANDERERS · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Maldonado (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV +6.9%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.5%

Wanderers (A) 22.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Maldonado face Wanderers in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Maldonado a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Wanderers 23%, so Deportivo Maldonado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Deportivo Maldonado and 1.0 for Wanderers (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Maldonado are averaging 2.15 points per game versus 1.36 for Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +53.9%.

Deportivo Maldonado vs Wanderers Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura Predictions