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Danubio vs Penarol Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

Danubio

PPG 1.08 · HOME

UPCOMING

Penarol

PPG 2.09 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-117.3%0-210.4%0-34.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.6%1-112.7%1-27.7%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-03.9%2-14.7%2-22.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.0%3-11.2%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% 19.6% 5.10 +12.2%

Draw 31.9% 30.8% 3.25 +3.7%

Away win 44.5% 58.5% 1.71 -23.9%

Over 2.5 38.6% 42.6% 2.35 -9.3%

Over 3.5 18.5% 22.2% 4.50 -10.1%

BTTS 42.5% 47.6% 2.10 -10.8%

Home O1.5 30.8% 21.1% 4.75 +46.3%

Away O1.5 36.4% 48.8% 2.05 -25.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob42.5%

A 44% / xG 0.7-1.2 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.3%

#2 0–1 17.3%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 0–2 10.4%

#5 1–0 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Danubio0.7

Penarol1.2

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.6% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DANUBIO · PPG 1.08

PENAROL · PPG 2.09

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.47, combined xG 1.94 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Danubio (H) 23.6%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +12.2%

Draw 31.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +3.7%

Penarol (A) 44.5%

ODDS 1.71 · IMPLIED 58.5% EV -23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Danubio face Penarol in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Danubio a 24% chance, the draw 32% and Penarol 45%, so Penarol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Danubio and 1.2 for Penarol (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Danubio are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 2.09 for Penarol. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +46.3%.

Danubio vs Penarol Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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