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Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 20:00

Atlético Ottawa

PPG 2.30 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLW

UPCOMING

Pacific FC

PPG 0.43 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 69% chance

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a clear edge.

+19.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-12.0%0-21.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.6%1-15.7%1-23.5%1-31.4%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.7%2-18.3%2-25.1%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.5%3-18.0%3-24.9%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-09.7%4+-111.9%4+-27.3%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.9% 59.9% 1.67 +6.7%

Draw 15.4% 26.3% 3.80 -24.9%

Away win 20.7% 26.7% 3.75 -13.4%

Over 2.5 68.6% 69.4% 1.44 -1.2%

Over 3.5 49.4% 50.0% 2.00 -1.2%

BTTS 63.5% 71.4% 1.40 -11.1%

Home O1.5 77.9% 65.4% 1.53 +19.2%

Away O1.5 36.8% 38.2% 2.62 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 2.9%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.5%

H 64% / xG 2.9-1.2 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 2–0 6.7%

#4 1–1 5.7%

#5 3–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atlético Ottawa2.9

Pacific FC1.2

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.6% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLÉTICO OTTAWA · PPG 2.30

PACIFIC FC · PPG 0.43

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

69%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.68 for Home, form 2.30 vs 0.43 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Atlético Ottawa (H) 63.9%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV +6.7%

Draw 15.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -24.9%

Pacific FC (A) 20.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atlético Ottawa face Pacific FC in Canada - Premier League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atlético Ottawa a 64% chance, the draw 15% and Pacific FC 21%, so Atlético Ottawa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Atlético Ottawa and 1.2 for Pacific FC (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atlético Ottawa are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 0.43 for Pacific FC. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +45.7%.

Atlético Ottawa vs Pacific FC Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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