Today / Canada - Premier League / York United vs Supra du Quebec

York United vs Supra du Quebec Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 20:00

York United

PPG 1.43 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Supra du Quebec

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 69.1% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.1%0-23.2%0-32.2%0-4+1.9%1 1-03.2%1-16.7%1-26.9%1-34.7%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.4%2-17.1%2-27.3%2-35.0%2-4+4.2%3 3-02.4%3-15.0%3-25.2%3-33.5%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-14.3%4+-24.5%4+-33.1%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% 38.2% 2.62 +9.5%

Draw 21.3% 30.3% 3.30 -17.8%

Away win 36.9% 44.4% 2.25 -17.0%

Over 2.5 70.0% 66.7% 1.50 +5.0%

Over 3.5 48.1% 45.5% 2.20 +5.8%

BTTS 69.1% 71.4% 1.40 -3.3%

Home O1.5 59.6% 50.0% 2.00 +19.2%

Away O1.5 55.6% 54.6% 1.83 +1.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI 2.9%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob69.1%

H 42% / xG 2.1-2.1 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.1%

#2 1–1✓ 6.7%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 1–2 6.9%

#5 3–2 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

York United2.1

Supra du Quebec2.1

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 70.0% · O3.5 PROB 48.1%

Form & verdict PPG

YORK UNITED · PPG 1.43

SUPRA DU QUEBEC · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

York United (H) 41.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +9.5%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -17.8%

Supra du Quebec (A) 36.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

York United face Supra du Quebec in Canada - Premier League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives York United a 42% chance, the draw 21% and Supra du Quebec 37%, so York United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for York United and 2.1 for Supra du Quebec (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, York United are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 1.25 for Supra du Quebec. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +32.8%. This match finished 1-1.

York United vs Supra du Quebec Prediction— Canada - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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